Weekly Check-In: TSM, BRK.B, AMZN, SPY

TSM is at $430.49, market cap $1.97T, still roughly 13% below its recent high. July revenue rose 44.7% year-over-year to NT$467.58B, with year-to-date sales up 37% on continued AI chip demand. FY capex guidance was raised to $60–64B, with 70–80% going toward advanced-process nodes; three new 3nm fabs are underway in Taiwan, Arizona, and Kumamoto, alongside some 5nm lines being converted to 3nm. A new joint venture with Sony was announced for next-generation smartphone image sensors. Analyst consensus stays Buy, average target $551.67.

AMZN posted Q2 2026 net sales up 20% year-over-year to $200.6B, operating income up 43% to $27.5B, and AWS growth re-accelerating to 37% with a $169B annualized run-rate and $496B order backlog. Shares jumped roughly 15–17% on the print, trading around $267.28, still off the $290 record. FY26 capex guidance was raised to $220B. On the less flattering side: New Jersey's Attorney General filed an antitrust suit on August 4 over Amazon's delivery-contractor practices, and Jeff Bezos filed to sell more than $4B in stock under a prearranged 10b5-1 plan.

BRK.B reported Q2 2026 EPS of $6.02, beating the $5.13 estimate by 17.35%; net income more than doubled to $25.67B, including $12.68B in investment gains. Operating income rose 16.3% to $12.98B, though 66% of that increase came from currency movement on debt rather than the underlying businesses. Abel ended a 14-quarter streak as a net seller of stocks — net equity purchases and buybacks totaled roughly $24B last quarter, including $4.53B in buybacks plus another $3.3B+ in July. Shares rose 2.0% over the past week, trailing the S&P 500's 3.6% gain over the same stretch.

SPY closed above $777, its 27th record high of 2026 (the S&P 500 index itself topped 7,798 that same day), for a year-to-date gain of roughly 12%. JPMorgan raised its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,800 to 8,000, and prediction market Kalshi prices 66.1% odds of the index hitting 8,000 by year-end. GuruFocus's GF Value model, meanwhile, flags the index as roughly 12.1% overvalued. Tech was mixed on the week — Oracle, Intel, and Nvidia led gains while Meta and Microsoft weighed on the index.

The backdrop this week: broad-market records alongside single-name divergence — TSM and AMZN are still riding their Q2 beats, BRK.B's operating gain leaned more on currency than the core businesses, and the index's own valuation model is flagging it as stretched even as it keeps printing new highs.